Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.105462 0.123114 0.143462 0.168802 0.199718 0.236478 0.283888
2025-10-12 0.084931 0.107350 0.135834 0.175236 0.229217 0.301907 0.409522
2025-10-19 0.069278 0.093644 0.127301 0.178411 0.256304 0.374449 0.575252
2025-10-26 0.057536 0.082557 0.119825 0.181553 0.285772 0.463781 0.813314
2025-11-02 0.046988 0.070957 0.109076 0.177296 0.303855 0.545949 1.095121
2025-11-09 0.038040 0.059994 0.096934 0.167711 0.310718 0.614929 1.410087
2025-11-16 0.032710 0.053875 0.091573 0.169080 0.340547 0.750468 2.012418
2025-11-23 0.028325 0.048520 0.086414 0.169638 0.370525 0.910065 2.883026
2025-11-30 0.025131 0.044704 0.083337 0.173932 0.412953 1.139095 4.359994
2025-12-07 0.022356 0.041153 0.080017 0.176912 0.455372 1.412029 6.622122
2025-12-14 0.019444 0.036791 0.074038 0.171732 0.473596 1.628967 9.252493
2025-12-21 0.016206 0.031220 0.064263 0.153898 0.444781 1.645036 10.760759
2025-12-28 0.014658 0.029063 0.062059 0.156656 0.489923 2.055857 17.458355
2026-01-04 0.013542 0.027657 0.061361 0.163809 0.558419 2.706693 31.809824
2026-01-11 0.012408 0.026015 0.059732 0.167810 0.620218 3.463211 57.842149
2026-01-18 0.011408 0.024515 0.058151 0.171631 0.687331 4.445630 111.406995
2026-01-25 0.010286 0.022532 0.054838 0.168375 0.720123 5.281524 194.784273
2026-02-01 0.009150 0.020341 0.050501 0.159920 0.720780 5.864490 307.500972
2026-02-08 0.008466 0.019195 0.048948 0.161675 0.783841 7.410249 689.147797
2026-02-15 0.007838 0.018096 0.047309 0.162584 0.845649 9.299796 1698.989209
2026-02-22 0.007363 0.017331 0.046535 0.166984 0.939318 12.328512 5897.360553
2026-03-01 0.006906 0.016544 0.045528 0.170091 1.031145 16.168178 27098.309734
2026-03-08 0.006341 0.015374 0.043033 0.165362 1.057454 18.932515 109847.977267